It is projected that the rest of the areas previously under drought will either improve or drought conditions will be alleviated entirely. Extended forecasts and drought national weather service. Home expert assessments drought information monthly drought outlook click on image to enlarge pdf version of monthly drought outlook graphic. For the rapidly worsening drought in the midwest, prospects for relief are bleak. To produce our images, we run a set of scripts that access map layers from cpc, and reproject them into desired projections at various sizes. Noaa monthly climate briefings state of the climate.
Latest monthly assessment there have not been significant changes to the incipient drought situation since the release of the april june seasonal drought outlook. The monthly and seasonal analyses from noaas national centers for environmental information and climate prediction center are part of the suite of climate services noaa provides government, business and community leaders so they can make informed decisions to help protect life and property and their economic livelihood. Seasonal drought outlook is issued on the first and third thursday of each month, and when weather events warrant an interim update. There are conflicting forecasts for the drought area extending from eastern tennessee into mississippi. A cpc forecaster from a rotating schedule of 5 as of august 20 creates the seasonal drought outlook map and narratives. S shortterm impacts, typically less than 6 months e. Constructed analog forecasts based on soil moisture cas current 3 to 7day outlooks. The drought monitor, seasonal drought outlook, and nidis integrate a diverse set of drought indicators from numerous sources. It is the usdm drought map that policymakers and media use in discussion of drought and in allocating drought relief.
From the nws hydrometeorological prediction center. Gif pdf latest seasonal assessment dryness and moderate drought have been increasing both in extent and intensity across much of the corn belt region, the middle and lower mississippi valley, and much of the great plains. A severe weather area depicted in the day 48 period indicates a 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms e. Data snapshots are derivatives of existing data products. Dec 14, 2005 official 90day outlooks are issued once each month near midmonth at 8. Noaa s climate prediction center cpc produces the source images for the monthly drought outlook. March 2020 regional climate impacts and outlooks ncei. Monthly drought outlook climate prediction center noaa. This change is reflected in the verification column. Latest monthly assessment with the rainy season coming to a close across the western contiguous u. Home outlook maps monthly to seasonal outlooks seasonal outlooks. California nevada river forecast center your government source of hydrologicweather data and forecasts for california, nevada, and portions of southern oregon.
Responsible party, climate prediction center, noaa point of contact. Noaa logo click to go to the noaa home page, national weather service. Click on the title or the graphic above to access the u. The maps, which are based on analysis of the data, are released each thursday at 8. The noaa outlook outlines a bullseye over the corn belt where precipitation is expected to. Although the seasonal outlook favors above normal precipitaton across this region, persistence is forecast given the relatively dry time of year across the high plains. Us seasonal drought outlook climate prediction center noaa. The noaa outlook outlines a bullseye over the corn belt where precipitation is.
The site also publishes maps showing hazard outlooks, drought status, and monthly and seasonal drought outlooks. This nonoperational server hosts the redesigned web pages developed, thus far, as part of the climate prediction centers cpc ongoing website redesign project. Widespread minor flooding this spring is expected in the midwest, resulting from months of ongoing rainfall with saturated soils. Noaas seasonal outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and total precipitation amounts will be above, near or belowaverage, and how drought conditions are favored to change. Official monthly and 3monthly temperature and precipitation outlook from monthly outlooks at the climate prediction center.
Projects national oceanic and atmospheric administration. The climate prediction center publishes temperature and precipitation outlook maps for four different future periods. Drought is likely to either develop, persist or expand across these areas. Seasonal drought outlook shows predicted trends for areas currently in drought, as well as areas where new droughts may develop. Monthly drought outlook pdf version of graphic adobe pdf reader, click on the title or the graphic above to access the u. To support this integration, noaa funded research is targeted to improving drought monitoring and prediction systems, resulting in improvements in the u. Monthly drought outlook discussion climate prediction center. Seasonal drought outlook discussion climate prediction center. David miskus noaanwsncepclimate prediction center drought tendency during the valid period valid for july 18 october 31, 2019 released july 18 depicts largescale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by short and longrange statistical and dynamical forecasts. Climate and drought outlook for the united states freese and. The cpc seasonal outlook favors abovemedian precipitation during the period.
The monthly drought outlook is issued at the end of each calendar month and is valid for the upcoming month. Monthly north american drought monitor maps and text discussions are provided using the form below and are available in english. The climate prediction centers cpc seasonal drought outlook is issued monthly on. The outlook predicts whether drought will emerge, stay the same or get better over the next 30 days or so. Local forecast office more local wx 3 day history mobile weather hourly weather forecast. Monthly drought outlook 0 seasonal drought outlook 1 description. The starting point for official government weather forecasts, warnings, meteorological products for forecasting the. Official seasonal forecasts from the climate prediction center. The noaa climate prediction center issues this monthly product in conjunction with their longlead temperature and precipitation outlooks on the first and third thursday of each month and when weather events. Gif pdf latest seasonal assessment heavy rains falling over the drought areas in florida near the start of the forecast period were already having a marked impact on rivers and groundwater, providing the most significant drought relief since tropical storm fay swept across the state last august.
Noaa national weather service national weather service. Soil moisture anomaly mm gfs forecast soil moisture anomalies. This server is not guaranteed to be available 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Widespread minor flooding this spring is expected in the midwest, resulting from months of ongoing rainfall. Noaas climate prediction center 2020 threemonth outlook from april. Noaas seasonal outlook shows warm temperatures and rain inequality.
The map, produced using gis, shows where current drought areas are expected to improve, be removed, or persist with intensity, as well as new areas where drought may develop, at the end of the forecast period. Latest seasonal assessment as the rainy season draws to a close for the western contiguous u. Monthly north american drought monitor maps and text discussions are provided using the form below and are available in english, spanish, and french from november. Climate prediction center cpcus seasonal drought outlook sdo.
Drought development is expected to occur in parts of central california. Mdo are available on the monthly drought outlook archive web page. Drought improvement is expected for parts of colorado, new mexico, and arizona in coming months, particularly in new mexico figure 12. Drought conditions have gradually eased across hawaii. Home expert assessments drought information seasonal drought outlook click on image to enlarge pdf version of seasonal drought outlook graphic. David miskus noaa nwsncepclimate prediction center drought tendency during the valid period valid for july 18 october 31, 2019 released july 18 depicts largescale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by short and longrange statistical and dynamical forecasts. Innovim, llc, and climate prediction center, noaa nwsncep. This outlook is the product of pretty solid agreement in the. The data cutoff for drought monitor maps is each tuesday at 7 a. The map, produced using gis, shows where current drought areas are expected to improve, be removed, or persist with intensity, as well as new areas where drought may develop, at the. A small area of moderate drought is ongoing across southwest kansas. On october 17th, noaa issued its december through february outlook for temperature, precipitation, and drought.
Monthly drought outlook legend all layers and tables layers. Apr 21, 2020 it is projected that the rest of the areas previously under drought will either improve or drought conditions will be alleviated entirely. Standardized precipitation index spi at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. In june 20, the climate prediction center made modifications to the u. According to the seasonal outlook from noaa, warmerthanaverage temperatures are most likely from coast to coast with the greatest chances in northern alaska, across the central great basin southward into the gulf states, and into the southeast and portions of the midatlantic. Following this late season storminess at the end of march, long range forecasts issued prior to the april june 2020 seasonal drought outlook sdo depicted a. Mar 26, 2020 noaa releases its flood outlook for the spring. Noaa produces seasonal outlooks to help communities prepare for weather and environmental conditions that are likely during the coming months to minimize. Existing and developing drought percent of pixels hit note. Therefore, drought development is unlikely for the northern and central great plains. One of the major changes involved the replacement of the updated seasonal drought outlook sdo with a new monthly drought outlook mdo.
Climate and drought outlook for the united states freese. Support seasonal drought outlook by providing objective ensemble drought forecasts. Mar 20, 2020 drought conditions have gradually eased across hawaii. The motivation for nldas2 is to support drought monitoring and seasonal drought prediction at cpc, and for the national integrated drought information system nidis, drought. October 18, 2019 edited by ernst undesser, agfax web editor, with information from brad pugh, noaa.
Drought is defined as a moisture deficit bad enough to have social, environmental or economic effects. Operational probabilistic drought prediction to improve the. Tools used in the drought outlook included the official cpc precipitation outlook for june 2009 and the long lead forecast for june august 2009, the fourmonth palmer drought termination and amelioration probabilities, various medium and shortrange forecasts and models such as the 610 day and 8. There is also the potential for new drought development in the pacific northwest and northern intermountain region, the sierras in. The map, produced using gis, shows where current drought areas are expected to. Us seasonal drought outlook from the us temperature, precipitation, hazards and drought outlooks website at the climate prediction center. Soil moisture anomaly forecast, based on actual conditions and cpcs midrange forecast. A continuation of suppressed convection favors expanding drought across eastern puerto rico. Tools used in the drought outlook included the official cpc longlead precipitation outlook for apriljune, the fourmonth drought termination and amelioration probabilities, various medium and shortrange forecasts and models such as the 610 day and 814 day forecasts, and the soil moisture tools. Anthony artusa noaa nwsncepclimate prediction center drought tendency during the valid period valid for april 16 july 31, 2020 released april 16 depicts largescale trends based on subjectively derived probabilities guided by short and longrange statistical and dynamical forecasts.
Operational probabilistic drought prediction to improve. Layer depicts the most recent cpc seasonal drought outlook. This map depicts a nationwide outlook of seasonal drought during the period of april through july 2020. The experts also consider seasonal patterns of precipitation for example, if a region usually has a wet summer. This change is reflected in the verification column of the sdo archive table, starting with the julyseptember 20 outlook released on june 20, 20, as there is now only one sdo verification link. Noaa drought outlook seasonal april, may, june agfax. Atlantic ocean hurricane outlook from the climate prediction center. In hawaii, seasonal dryness favors drought persistence over molokai, although there is a potential for tropical cyclone activity near hawaii early in the month.
A cpc forecaster from a rotating schedule of 5 as of august 20 creates the monthly drought outlook map and narratives. To support this integration, noaafunded research is targeted to improving drought monitoring and prediction systems, resulting in improvements in the u. Drought monitor information as well as longrange forecast precipitation, temperature, and drought information. March 2020 regional climate impacts and outlooks news. Noaas seasonal climate forecast for winter 201920, covering temperature, precipitation, and drought outlooks for december 2019february 2020. North american drought monitor temperature, precipitation. The latest seasonal drought outlook from the climate prediction center. Innovim, llc, and climate prediction center, noaanwsncep. Rapid onset and intensification of drought occurred across the southeast, midatlantic, and ohio to tennessee valleys since late august. Climate prediction center united states drought information. Us weather outlook highlights spring flooding risk ars.
Worldwide predictions for temperature and precipitation from the international research institute for. Us weather outlook highlights spring flooding risk ars technica. Drought outlook usdo included the official cpc temperature and precipitation outlooks for july 2012 and the long lead forecast for july through september 2012, various medium and shortrange forecasts and models such as the 610 day and 814 day forecasts, the most recent. The drought outlook depicts limited improvement rather than straight improvement because of some indications for dryness during apriljune, as indicated in the cpc seasonal forecast. Seasonal drought outlook sdo include the climate prediction center cpc temperature and precipitation outlooks for may 2020 and. Climate prediction center seasonal drought outlook sdo. Noaas climate prediction center cpc produces the source images for the monthly drought outlook.
Oct 17, 2019 drought development is expected to occur in parts of central california. D1 is the least intense level and d4 the most intense. Seasonal drought outlook climate prediction center. How research is improving how we monitor and predict drought. Drought monitor, drought outlook, and nidis capabilities. The drought monitor summary map identifies general areas of drought and labels them by intensity. Seasonal drought outlook climate prediction center noaa. This summary is partially excerpted and edited from the august 15 seasonal drought outlook technical discussion produced by the noaaclimate prediction center cpc and written by forecaster b.
Mar 22, 2020 noaas seasonal outlook shows warm temperatures and rain inequality. Temperatures are favored to be above average across most of the western, southern, and eastern u. This excessive rainfall stands in contrast to areas of ongoing drought in parts of the south and west, and noaa forecasters will provide the outlook for where drought may improve or worsen. The noaa climate prediction center issues this monthly product in conjunction with their longlead temperature and precipitation outlooks on the first and third. However, on the prediction side, there is currently no suitable drought outlook that matches up with the usdm although monthly and seasonal drought outlooks are issued each month by cpc.
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